Contrary Opinion | The Predictive Power of the Tweet

Don't Count on Twitter for Presidential Predictions

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BethSchultz
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Re: Twitter
BethSchultz   10/24/2012 7:40:54 AM
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@Lyndon_Henry, the question that immediately popped to my mind is whether folks are buying the masks to make fun of the candidate or to support. I'd kind of think the former, given the nature of Halloween. This is a tricky one!

Lyndon_Henry
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Re: Twitter
Lyndon_Henry   10/23/2012 7:36:31 PM
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..

Beth writes


Tweets may be fun, annoying, inflamatory, etc., but I don't see them as truly indicative of what will happen at the polls.


 

In terms of political analytics, here's an interesting competitor to Twitter:

Halloween Mask Sales Show Obama Leads Romney 60 Percent To 40 Percent

 

 

webmetricsguru
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Re: Twitter
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 12:00:12 PM
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Darn Beth!  I wish I had joined Twitter early enough to have gotten @marshall as my Twitter handle! Unfortunately, I waited too long and I actually use @webmetricsguru as my main handle, and @smanalyticsbook as the other one around my book.

BTW, in the first recording - there are new tools to find "pursuadable voters" (note the Analytist Institure in Washington DC).  What does it mean to be a partisan or independent (see 16 minutes in).    An indepenent that leans democratic is more democratic than someone that identifies themselves as a democrat, but not really strongly).

 

Listen to the tapes, here are gems in there.

 


And yes, I found that most candidates, besides the national ones and a few forward leaning senate and governers, just don't have the resources and staff or even the understanting yet, of how to work with this data - frustrating - but 99% could not run these experiments even if they did mouth the "big data" hype.  Ha!

webmetricsguru
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Re: Twitter
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 11:49:00 AM
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Thanks for updating the links so they work - I think some of us here, would really enjoy them, and I'm listening to the first one now, and enjoying it.  Granted they do take time to listen to - but some of the people here are data geeks and wondering just what kind of data science is being used to gauge campaign messaging and targeting.

Well, a lot of progerssive data testing is contained in these audios - and the video I tried to embed had a lot of good stuff too.

BethSchultz
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Re: Twitter
BethSchultz   10/18/2012 11:24:46 AM
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@Marshall, good point about funding of analytics work/analysts on state and local campaigns. I wonder if we'll see enough evidence coming out of these current elections to make analytics a priority spend for lower-level campaigns going forward. What do you think?

webmetricsguru
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Re: Twitter
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 11:20:14 AM
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I'm not sure, Beth!  

Actually, what I was struck with, at NetRoots, was groups of statisticians and analytsts who had applied best practices of multivariate testing and data mashups to candidate messaging and positioning.  

That's what those 4 links I put in earlier this morning were about - they were actual cases and some of the science/analytics behind what sophisticated campaigns are doing on the Left to counter large amounts of SuperPAC money coming from to the Right.

What also struck me was how most state and local district campaigns don't have the right people on staff to run the experiements, do the data cleaning, assemble the insights - even if they wanted to have them.  I also don't think many campaigns have the money to pay for it either (or don't yet understand it's value).

 

 

BethSchultz
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Re: Twitter
BethSchultz   10/18/2012 10:58:01 AM
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Marshall, would you say that the people who are trying to find answers and be objective are academics or other researchers studying the Twitter phenomenon and its usefulness in measuring social mores, interests, trends, etc.? In other words, they'll be spending far more time and putting far more effort into their projects -- presidential predictions, in this case -- than the average political pundit or pollster?

webmetricsguru
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Re: Bias reaffirmed
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 3:35:18 AM
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For some reason the links I put in won't display - too bad.  I can try pasting them in as plain text, or people here can let me know if they are interested in the material as it's very timely.

webmetricsguru
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Re: Bias reaffirmed
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 3:33:39 AM
first, the polls that include mobile phones are better-but i understand there are issues with certain laws or regulations around it. i learnt about this when i attended netroots nation in providence, ri, last june (netroots is run by the dailykos founder).

for data geeks (what we all are) i attended and recorded all the polling sessions at netroots-which includes those that deal with handling of the data-some of the readers here might be interested in this material just now.

i think alot of readers here would be interested in these 4 data sessions.

so here it is.

 

#nn 12 panels on data and politics (you may want to listen to the entire recording as there is no other way to get the information that i'm aware of and i may have been the only one recording it)

 

 


webmetricsguru
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Re: Neuroscience or not ...
webmetricsguru   10/18/2012 3:14:27 AM
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Agreed, and I'm about to write a post on it a WebMetricsGuru.com.     Perhaps something for next Monday's debate at AllAnalytics.com would be a good idea too.

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