With the solstice upon us today, we're officially into summer -- the season for sunshine, barbecues, and… predictive modeling.
"Predictive modeling?" you're no doubt wondering. That topic may be frequently on your mind, but it does not typically come up in a list of summer essentials. So imagine my surprise to see it sandwiched between "Theater on the Lake" and "Dining in the Park" in a recent personal email I received from the Chicago Park District (CPD) about things I ought to know as I plan my summertime activities.
Naturally, I couldn't help but click on the Predictive Modeling link. And so I landed on a YouTube episode of Chicago@Play telling me all about how the city is using advanced analytics to measure water quality at 16 of its 24 designated Lake Michigan swim beaches.
The CPD continuously collects data from buoys in the water and weather stations up on light poles to measure factors like rainfall, the water's cloudiness, and wave height, Cathy Breitenbach, the park district's director of lakefront operations, says in the Chicago@Play program. It then runs the streamed data through predictive models to determine whether to declare the water safe for swimming (via green flags on the beaches), issue swimming advisories (yellow flags), or ban swimming (red flags).
The predictive modeling was successfully tested in the offseason and is new for the 2012 beach season, Breitenbach says. "Over the winter, we did statistics work to see if we could… predict bacteria levels using our dataset from the tests that we took -- and it worked!"
With the predictive modeling, the CPD is making its swim safety decisions based on real-time data, not on yesterday's bacteria test results. Previously, Breitenbach says, it took the CPD 18 hours to get results from the lab, "so we were constantly playing catch-up." Now when Chicagoans or visitors head to the beaches and see the green flags waving invitingly, they can wade in with confidence.
Watch the "Predictive Modeling at Beaches" episode for yourself below, and let us know how the cities where you live and work are using predictive modeling to improve life. Share on the message board below.
when it comes to sports, my point is that the human element is perhaps too much for modeling to handle.
I had a mother-in-law once who made a good living by playing the horse races in New Jersey. She kept amazing data records on all the horses and jockeys, and made lots of smart bets (including hedge bets) based on her own mostly mental calculations and intuitions from the horse and jockey data.
Wonder what she'd do today with a knowledge of analytics ... Maybe make her fortune by inventing a killer app?
It'll be helpful to have advance info, too -- rather than arriving for a day at the beach only to discover the yellow or red flag waving. I think a lot of other cities along the Lake Michigan and other lakefronts could earn points from their beachgoers, too, if they set up similar systems.
Very interesting focus article, Beth. Combines my previously stated interests in applications of analytics in the public sector and weather prediction (actually, using weather data to predict water quality).
Can you imagine what we can do with this type of data analysis all over the world. Imagine societies that are wholely dependent on the rain fall to plant crops. This type of measurement might help developing societies know when to fish, what types of fish to catch, what types of crops to plant, especially in areas that experience large drought.
@Callmebob, that Olympic report reminds me of the stuff that comes out before the Super Bowl, World Series, etc....where they "play" the game 1,001 times to come up a prediction on a winner -- and most of the time, the other team wins. OK, maybe not "most of the time," but when it comes to sports, my point is that the human element is perhaps too much for modeling to handle.
Interesting @callmebob! We'll have to see how the predictions play out. I haven't read the PwC piece yet, but definitely will. I wonder if the athletes know the predictions? Could provide some incentive to do better and belie the models.
@Parda, so true. It'll be helpful to have advance info, too -- rather than arriving for a day at the beach only to discover the yellow or red flag waving. I think a lot of other cities along the Lake Michigan and other lakefronts could earn points from their beachgoers, too, if they set up similar systems.
@SaneIT -- I'm glad to hear that you've used this blog as impetus to get the communities around you to take action. You'll have to be sure to share the responses!
I forwarded the link to several cities in my area that my family visits to play in the water. Although the types of water a bit different I thought maybe it would get them thinking about how predictive modeling could help them with issues like rip tides on the ocean side and the wonder amoeba everyone worries about in the lakes. I'm sure they do the monitoring but I really wonder if they've ever done any modeling.
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