Beth Schultz

Post-Debate, the President-Elect Would Be...

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Ariella
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Re: election indicators
Ariella   10/10/2012 4:13:24 PM
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@Beth oh, yes, it's a great idea to use cups of coffee as an indicator. I can't quite see Starbucks giving up its mermaid logo in pursuit of the same kind of survey, though.

BethSchultz
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Re: election indicators
BethSchultz   10/10/2012 3:54:59 PM
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Ariella, now that's a retailer putting its analytics to very clever use, questionable as the results may be.

Ariella
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election indicators
Ariella   10/10/2012 2:19:22 PM
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Then there is the low tech form of analytics based on a choice of coffee cups at 7-Eleven: http://lifeinc.today.com/_news/2012/10/10/14340658-obama-wins-by-landslide-in-7-eleven-coffee-cup-survey:

As it has done in every presidential election since 2000, the convenience store chain is selling red and blue to-go coffee cups marked with the names of the major party candidates, as well as regular, unmarked cups for undecided voter in its "7-Election."

So far Obama is ahead nationally by a wide 60-40 margin, although more scientific polls have the national race as virtually a dead heat. In the closely contested swing state of Ohio, where both candidates are campaigning heavily this week, the coffee cup poll favors the incumbent 57 to 43, with undecided coffee drinkers excluded.

Even though the poll bills itself as "unabashedly unofficial and unscientific," it has accurately predicted the winners since it began in 2000. Not only that, the results have hewed within 1 percentage point of the final popular vote. In 2008, Sen. John McCain got 46 percent in the 7-Election and 45.7 percent in the real election, while Obama got 52 percent of the coffee cups and 52.9 percent of the actual votes. In 2004, President George W. Bush beat Sen. John Kerry in the 7-Election 51-49, compared with 50.7 to 48.3 in the real polls.

BethSchultz
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More from Illinois
BethSchultz   10/8/2012 11:30:21 AM
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U of I's C.S. department shares more on Jacobson's work here.

Lyndon_Henry
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Re: 1.000 probability
Lyndon_Henry   10/5/2012 6:25:17 PM
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..

Beth writes


 

... the 1.000 probability works, though, since the tool forecasts the winner based on that day's poll data.


 

I'm not convinced that poll data or other sentiment indicators are fully accurate predictors, especially given the unusual conditions prevailing in today's politically charged environment.  For example, the confloption over "Voter ID", early voting, etc. could impact voter eligibility and voter willingness to endure difficult voting conditions.

 

impactnow
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Re: 1.000 probability
impactnow   10/5/2012 12:55:55 PM
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Noreen I think it's an interesting question, I remember watching debates when we looked at people's faces at College campuses in bars etc. Now a lot of the analysis surrounded the social media response and few new channels did the man on the street analysis. So I guess the answer is yes they do care about twitter and facebook, will it make a difference or will it just solidify options and perspectives. That might be the question, could social media move the decision needle or is it just about sharing opinions.

Broadway0474
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Re: post-debate
Broadway0474   10/5/2012 12:15:25 PM
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@Ariella, it probably took you a couple minutes to look up the funders for Sesame Street. Hopefully, many folks have the common sense to look for the real answers behind all the half-lies spoken during this campaign, or at least the sense to know that they are half-lies.

BethSchultz
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Re: post-debate
BethSchultz   10/5/2012 8:00:05 AM
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But of course! (And I fixed the link -- although I'm sure you can adequately imagine it.)

Ariella
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Re: post-debate
Ariella   10/4/2012 10:33:13 PM
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@Beth I couldn't get the link to work, but I'd venture to guess ... Big Bird.

BethSchultz
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Re: post-debate
BethSchultz   10/4/2012 8:28:00 PM
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Romney's Halloween costume?



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