Beth Schultz

Twisting & Turning on Tornado Data

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SaneIT
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Data Doctor
Re: Safety
SaneIT   5/31/2013 8:03:14 AM
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I'll take the one further and say that good information and good communication are key.  One of the reasons there were so many issues with New Orleans when they were hit with their last big hurricane was that no one listened to the warnings.  Everyone was more or less numb to the forecasts because they kept hearing the same thing every time a hurricane was close.  We saw the same thing here in central FL about 6 years ago.  We had 3 direct hits within the span of a few months.  The first one had the highways packed as people moved to safer areas.  They the time the third one hit no one was moving because it was old news and we'd already made it through two others. 

michaeljackson
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Prospector
Safety
michaeljackson   5/30/2013 1:08:29 PM
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Living in the footprint of "Tornado Alley" and "Hurricane Lane" I can't stress the importance of safety and communication.  Several of the more recent disasters have become PR nightmares because of the breakdown of communications and prevalent safety issues for citizens.  These two issues are paramount in disaster response.

BethSchultz
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Re: yes, very scary
BethSchultz   5/30/2013 9:43:45 AM
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I think the important thing is that he's got the people's attention -- and if that helps move people to safety during weather threats, then that's a good thing.

SaneIT
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Data Doctor
Re: yes, very scary
SaneIT   5/30/2013 7:38:05 AM
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It does make you wonder if it was a legitimate pattern or if this is an example of selection bias.  Before radar and meteorologists people watched cloud patterns and the direction of the wind to predict storms on the horizon so it's not totally dismissible but I do wonder if it's just a matter of a vocal individual who just happened to get a prediction right.

Maryam@Impact
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Re: yes, very scary
Maryam@Impact   5/29/2013 11:00:55 PM
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Beth it seems like his experieince is an analytical phenonmen in itself. Hopefully, it will continue to save lives in the future and he can transfer his knowledge for future generations.

BethSchultz
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Re: yes, very scary
BethSchultz   5/29/2013 11:02:54 AM
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@SaneIT, thought I'd share one last note on tornado forecasting. I read this nice human interest story about an Oklahoma weather forecaster who, apparently, is quite well trusted in Tornado Alley:

"Two days before the tornado hit, Gary England had an uneasy feeling. The wind patterns emerging over the weekend reminded him of the conditions that unleashed deadly storms in the region on May 3, 1999.

He began warning that trouble was just days away. England has been forecasting the state's often capricious weather for so long — 40 years — that when he says to seek shelter, they do."

SaneIT
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Data Doctor
Re: yes, very scary
SaneIT   5/29/2013 7:25:00 AM
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It is and I remember the days of global cooling and how we were all going to die in the next ice age.

SaneIT
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Data Doctor
Re: yes, very scary
SaneIT   5/29/2013 7:24:16 AM
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Well that covers tracking them once they form but NOAA has already predicted how many major storms they think will form out over the open ocean.  They are usually pretty close with that number.   Not hurricane models on the other hand can vary wildly and the paths that they predict can be hundreds of miles off but I'm thinking more along the lines of just knowing roughly when and how frequently they will form.

Maryam@Impact
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Blogger
Re: Tornados with no warning
Maryam@Impact   5/28/2013 11:04:48 PM
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Lyndon it really is like a movie. I have spent a good portion of my life on the East Coast and the weather is defintely getting frightening and out of context. We had the heat on this Memorial day weekedn temps were hitting lows in the 40s for the beginning of summer! The analytics of our weather patterns and their evolution will certainly be interesting reading over the next few years.

Lyndon_Henry
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Blogger
Re: yes, very scary
Lyndon_Henry   5/28/2013 11:56:59 AM
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..

Noreen posts


 
Confused Weather Drops Over 30 Inches of Snow on Memorial Day Weekend

It's a snowy Memorial Day weekend for parts of the U.S. On the aptly named Whiteface Mountain in upstate New York, there are at least 34 inches of snow on the ground. 
 
Gee, maybe we ARE headed for a new ice age after all...

 

 

 

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