Leo Sadovy

Any Fool Can Make a Rule...

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Brian27
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Prospector
Re: Decision rules=coupon at checkout for $1.00 off a bag of charcoal
Brian27   3/29/2013 4:13:51 PM
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First, thanks for the link on rules discussion. 

Second, most of the people around here use gas grills.  Either the rules also took into account more than ketchup + hamburger rolls - charcoal (such as that this Customer.ID bought charcoal or lighter fluid on another occasion; or demographic data made charcoal a good bet), or they just happen to get it right (I think something grill-method-neutral would be a better choice).

How would you structure the analysis to find out how well their rule worked?

Alexis
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Data Doctor
Re: Importance of people...
Alexis   12/11/2012 7:42:38 AM
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I had a similar experience. Wonder how the credit card issuers are able to determine foreign transactions are legit without a call from the consumer!

Noreen Seebacher
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Re: Importance of people...
Noreen Seebacher   12/11/2012 7:25:29 AM
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The last time I we t abroad I called Amex in advance to notify the company. Guess what? They said I didn't have to do that anymore. Guess the analytics have gotten really good.

Louis Watson
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Re: Henry David
Louis Watson   12/9/2012 5:12:39 PM
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@Leo   That's it 'On Walden's Pond' !    Well I am all for the environment, I can see why I never finished it though, a little slow for a 12 yr old.  Don't know what my Dad was thinking, I guess I will have to finish the book to find out.  I also look for the other as well (since I will still probably never finished the first one ), the title 'Civil Disobedience and other Essays' sounds like a great read.  That way I will have closed the loop in some way. : ) 

Oh and thanks for the tip on scheduling flights ...etc.  I will remember to stay focused and get it done quickly !  : )

tinym
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Data Doctor
Re: Decision rules
tinym   12/6/2012 11:18:11 PM
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@Leo It's nice to avoid price increases for bad tasting water. We live outside city limits for similar reasons. A nearby small town (5 minutes away) had elevated lead levels in the water over the summer. We were glad to be outside the contaminated area. City water in the other direction tastes terrible even after treatment.

Leo Sadovy
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Re: Importance of people...
Leo Sadovy   12/6/2012 1:03:14 PM
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@ MNORTH:  As a related personal anecdote, I have noticed how over the years there have been fewer false positives with regards to using our personal credit card when either my wife or I are traveling.  I used to make sure I carried at least $100 in cash with me, because you could almost always count on having the credit card frozen if I used it in New York right after my wife used it for gas at home.  I think the analytics, and therefore the rules, have gotten better, now being able to account for the fact that I travel, what cities I'm likely to hit, and so forth.  My college-age son, however, with less history / less data to work with, got hit with the death sentence recently when he travelled abroad to study in Indonesia for a year – locked down his credit card, debit card and the bank account.  Fortunately my wife had signed on as a co-owner of his accounts, in anticipation of exactly something like this, and she was able to clear things up in a couple of days, which would have been tough for him to do with the 12-hour time difference.

Leo Sadovy
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Re: Henry David
Leo Sadovy   12/6/2012 1:02:05 PM
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@Louis:  The rules are everywhere now.  Several times now, I have been on-line booking an airline flight, taking my good ol' time about it, getting distracted, finally getting back to the task, only to find that the flight I'd selected 15 minutes ago is no longer available at that fare – the computer / rules system has updated the passenger loading and pricing so as to encourage me to take a different, less full flight or route.  As for Thoreau, if the book is 'Civil Disobedience and other Essays', that's a must read, like Locke or the Federalist Papers.  If it's 'On Walden Pond', while it has important messages for us about taking care of our environment, I find myself less drawn to it now – I don't want to live a life that disengaged from society, and I don't think that option is realistically open to very many.

Leo Sadovy
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Re: Decision rules
Leo Sadovy   12/6/2012 1:01:09 PM
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@TinyM:  It was one of the reasons I moved where I did – get off city water, off the monthly bills and the chlorine treatment, so I'm very glad too.  And glad not to have the problems that MNorth mentions regarding fracking, although that's getting closer as well. 

mnorth
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Importance of people...
mnorth   12/6/2012 11:37:44 AM
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Leo, in the introduction to your piece, I thought maybe you live where I do -- Marcellus Shale country where fracking has us lighting out tap water on fire: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U01EK76Sy4A

I'm glad to hear your issues is more easily addressed.

Your HSBC example took me back to my days doing Risk Analytics at eBay.  My team and I built a number of SAS programs, both in memory and in database, to do real-time fraud detection and prediction.  I was always concered with the human element though.  Despite a 95% true positive rate on our models, we were essentially labeling people as thieves.  Thus, I pushed for (and was successful) in setting up a rating system and team of personnel to respond to the analytics results.  The models ranked each flagged auction or user on a scale of 0-100, a confidence rating for how sure the model was that the sale or person was fraudulent.  Then a team of 16 full-time staff were hired to go through the reports, all day, every day, starting with the 100's and working down, double checking the risk before confronting the sellers and labeling them fraudsters.  It was an expensive endeavor, but cheaper than letting fraud run rampant, and the right thing to do in terms of treating people like, well, people.

Louis Watson
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Henry David
Louis Watson   12/4/2012 11:09:19 PM
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Hi Leo,   Not many quote Thoreau anymore and it reminds me that I still need to read that book of Thoreau that my dad gave me so many years ago.    Mr.Thoreau had a lot of insights and I think he must have been a forerunner of rule-based decision making is some loosely connected way.

I really am not surprised to see the grow in rules-based decision making, but of course the rules make or break the system.  

Thanks for a trip down memory lane....now to find that book.

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