Ariella Brown

Do Analytics Deliver Bang for Crime Fighting Bucks?

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kq4ym
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
kq4ym   6/14/2016 7:34:58 AM
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It's always interesting to see how public opinion and crowd emotions sometimes gets in the way of solving real problems and looking at the data to see what works and what we can measure or not measure. With 45 or so homicides in the U.S. daily according to the CDC it's not an insignificant problem to look at. But there are also 110 suicides a day, and 50 traffic deaths due to drugs or alcohol. Where do we begin?

Ariella
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
Ariella   6/7/2016 8:22:16 AM
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@Lyndon_Henry Exactly, picturer all the negative connotations of a police state. Of course, where you draw the line between reasonable measures for security and too much loss of liberty depends  a great deal on your own assumptions and expectations. That's why it can be so difficult to come up with a policy. Some tried to argue that even the sound sensors put in for ShotSpotter could be considered a breach of privacy, but I don't believe they are used to pick up on private conversations. However, the mobile device you carry around may be doing that on its own, along with tracking your location, browser history, etc. 

Lyndon_Henry
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
Lyndon_Henry   6/6/2016 10:18:02 PM
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..

Ariella writes

The thing is this: even if there is a benefit, is it worth the cost to individual liberty and privacy, particularly when minorities bear the brunt of such intrusive policies? 



 

It is frightening to have random criminal violence perpetrated by random individual sociopaths. But it's also frightening to face the possibility of official acts of violence perpetrated by the agents of the state itself.

 

Ariella
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
Ariella   6/6/2016 5:59:54 PM
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<Wait a minute ... not sure I'm on board with that ...> Ha, @Lyndon_Henry. The Atlantic article did seem to give some credit to the policy for the drop in crime, though I know that organizations like the ACLU would stress that it is not clear that there is a benefit. The thing is this: even if there is a benefit, is it worth the cost to individual liberty and privacy, particularly when minorities bear the brunt of such intrusive policies? 

Lyndon_Henry
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
Lyndon_Henry   6/6/2016 5:52:16 PM
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..

Ariella writes

When NYC had "stop and frisk" in effect, violent crimes were down, but that solution generated so much controversy that the current mayor put an end to it. 



 

The current NYC administration put an end to "stop and frisk" also because (despite aggressive police contentions otherwise) there's no evidence of an actual causative correlation between the drop in crime rates and the policy. On the whole there's a raging controversy not only over the civil liberties implications of the policy but also, more importantly, whether it's effective at all.

The drop in crime rate has been a national phenomenon, in many cities without the ferocious "stop & frisk" policy implemented in NYC. There's even debate over whether anything so far has actually explained reasons for the crime rate drop. One interesting article I've found (Mystery Of New York's Falling Crime Rate Remains Unsolved) suggests that "Surprisingly, some sociologists think civilization is simply getting less violent and more civilized ...."

Wait a minute ... not sure I'm on board with that ...

 

Ariella
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Re: Crime and violence in Chicago
Ariella   6/6/2016 3:35:33 PM
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@Terry any solution? When NYC had "stop and frisk" in effect, violent crimes were down, but that solution generated so much controversy that the current mayor put an end to it. This Atlantic article presents both the upside and the downside to the policy: 

Under Giuliani's successor, Michael Bloomberg, and his police chief, Raymond Kelly, the numbers climbed year after year: in 2011, the police recorded 686,000 stops. Only about 12 percent of these ended in an arrest or a summons. Between 2002 and 2013, says Donna Lieberman, the head of the New York Civil Liberties Union, "innocent people were subjected to this by-no-means-minor intrusion more than 4.4 million times."

Meanwhile, though, the city grew far more secure, proving, it seemed, that New York's mayors and police chiefs were right to have faith in their ability to impose safety. During the past two decades, the rate of what are termed "index" offenses—homicide, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, auto theft, larceny, and arson—has been cut by 75 percent in New York. These crimes have been largely erased from the city. The change feels almost magical, and suggests something stunning about the possibility of fixing overwhelming societal problems, and of enabling urban metamorphosis.


It then goes on to discuss the implementation in other cities without hard data on how effective it was in combatting crime in them. 

Terry Sweeney
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Crime and violence in Chicago
Terry Sweeney   6/5/2016 1:01:55 PM
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I'd love to see analytics start to make a difference in the storm of violence and crime that has engulfed Chicago in the last month -- 64 people shot over the Memorial Day weekend, 6 of them fatally, according to the NYT. Actually with the numbers Chicago is posting, I'd welcome any solution, technical or non-technical.

Ariella
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Re: Independence Day
Ariella   6/3/2016 9:50:58 AM
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@SaneIT that's a big question: given limited resources, where do you direct them? To invoke some of my own cynicism, once the police departments invest millions in this technology, they will make it a priority for police responses. So every shot coming through that system likely would get more attention than one that is called in. 

SaneIT
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Data Doctor
Re: Independence Day
SaneIT   6/3/2016 8:23:32 AM
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"They feel they have nothing to gain and much to lose in terms of time and getting on the bad side of someone who has no qualms about solving problems with a gun. "

 

This is what I was getting at in the high crime/high gang activity areas.  Calling the police when you hear gunshots might put the fear of retaliation into people who live with that every day.  The data does seem good to have but it seems like the unreported, really no case to open reports from the system could tend to take up valuable resources if too much attention is paid to them. 

 

Ariella
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Re: Prevention
Ariella   6/2/2016 1:07:38 PM
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@James the reason I referenced three different tables was precisely to show that you get different figures depending on how you count up the guns. And, yes, each state -- even cities within states -- can have their own regulations and restrictions, including financial disincentives. In New York, for example, you need to apply for a permit to keep a gun at home. I dug out the NYC application, and that requires 2 fees:

– $340.00 - Made payable to New York City Police Department

– $ 89.75 - Made payable to New York City Police Department. 

The price is a bit lower in Nassau County, with its own set of 2 fees: a. $200.00 application fee.  b. $91.50 fingerprint processing fee. 

Cross over into the neighboring state of NJ, and the cost drops substantially. the only fees I see on the application are A non-refundable fee of $5.00 for a Firearms Purchaser Identification Card (Initial Firearms Purchaser ID card only) and/or $2.00 for each Permit to Purchase a Handgun, payable to the Superintendent of State Police or the Chief of Police in the municipality in which you reside.

The background check requirements also vary, but the biggest loophole, according to this http://www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/gun-show-firearms-bankground-checks-state-laws-map.html is buying a gun from a gunshow in a state that does not call for background checks under those circumstances.  That page then gives a link to http://www.governing.com/gov-data/gun-background-checks-by-state-nics-chart.html, which offers data on the nubmers with the warning about factors that can skew the results:

Data Notes

  • Numbers of firearm background checks do not represent numbers of firearms sold. Federal background checks are not required, for example, in private transactions, and multiple firearms may be purchased after a single background check.
  • Some Kentucky permit holders are subject to monthly background checks.
  • North Carolina conducted checks for a large group of existing permit holders in March 2014.
  • In California, a technical issue caused NICS queries to be submitted multiple times in March 2015.


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