Ariella Brown

Forecasting Business Data From Weather Analytics

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Ariella
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Re: Are Retailers finally getting smart ?
Ariella   3/19/2012 12:16:06 PM
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@ckelly1 Hello, and welcome to the board. I've noticed that retail establishments, in general, project a couple of months ahead. You don't just start seeing Christmas merchandise merchandise in October, you start seeing Easter merchandise in February.And spring clothes go on display already in January, though some of it passes as "cruisewear" for vacation. 

ckelly1
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Are Retailers finally getting smart ?
ckelly1   3/19/2012 11:35:36 AM
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Ever wonder what happened to all the winter clothes in Feb? I recently found out you can't buy a space heater either at the big stores..it's already summer there and fans and air conditioners have taken their place.  
I'm not sure that they can react on a dime..like a change if the weather within a couple of weeks.  I guess that is why it is so important to maintain and support smaller hardware and clothing shops that can easily pull out appropriate gear for the change in the weather pattern.  Buy local

Ariella
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Re: How'd Weather Channel do ...
Ariella   3/14/2012 1:31:16 PM
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Enjoy the day, Beth! We're having very similar weather in NY, and I hope to have a chance to get out on a bike today. 

BethSchultz
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Re: How'd Weather Channel do ...
BethSchultz   3/14/2012 12:46:49 PM
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@Ariella, since we're talking weather ... I just have to toss in here, it's mid March in Chicago and the temperature is a balmy 69 degrees right now and headed toward the mid 70s by late afternoon. I think historical weather trends analysis would show that's out of whack with the norm. (Think I'll grab my laptop and work from my yard now!)

Ariella
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Re: How'd Weather Channel do ...
Ariella   3/13/2012 6:40:42 PM
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@Beth, I did the same for my daughter. What can you do? You don't want your kids stuck if it does snow.

BethSchultz
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Re: How'd Weather Channel do ...
BethSchultz   3/13/2012 6:03:40 PM
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LOL Ariella, yes, indeed, it was a pleasant surprise to have a mild winter. But thank goodness I don't have responsibility for purchasing & managing retail inventory, etc.! I was angry enough I bought my son a new pair of snow boots that he wore only once!

 

Ariella
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Re: How'd Weather Channel do ...
Ariella   3/13/2012 5:38:20 PM
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@Beth Interesting, as you can see in the video, Paul Walsh already had the data in for a very mild winter by the beginning of December, which did prove accurate. I have to admit, I don't pay much attention to weather outside my own area, so I looked up the Chicago report and saw this: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/worst-of-winter-20112012-aimed/55995.

The post garnered comments like this one: "Above average temps in Chicago this week, no snow. Epic fail, Accuweather. Epic fail."

"so far our weather has proven to be the most MILD start of winter I can remember - the grass is still green and no sign of snow. What's up with that AccuWeather?"

That forecast was revised in late December as follows: "'"It does not appear that the winter season will replicate last year's cold and snowy winter," the weather service said in a special statement. "Instead, odds favor this winter to continue to be on the warm and wetter side of average.'"

The weather data everyone uses would likely all come from the same source, the National Weather Service (whose radar maps are also used by scientists to track bat movements.)  But the key to predictive anlaytics is to accurately guess the movements of the forces that contribute to snow, etc. It would seem that whoever did that for Chicago specifically erred. But it must have been a pleasant surprise to have such a mild winter, particularly in a region that usually has pretty tough ones. 

 

BethSchultz
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How'd Weather Channel do ...
BethSchultz   3/13/2012 5:13:14 PM
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@Ariella, all this talk about predicting weather has me wondering how accurate or off The Weather Channel's predictions for this past winter season were -- and whether advertisers could rely on it. All I know is all the local forecasters in Chicago had been warning us that we'd have a horrendous winter and it turned out to be the mildest  -- almost frighteningly so when you think about the implications -- I've ever experienced here (and I've lived here just about all my life). I don't remember ever checking with the local forecasters were saying against TWC forecasters but I'm guessing everybody was more or less saying the same thing?!

Ariella
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Re: Sunny forecast ...
Ariella   3/13/2012 8:57:19 AM
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@Daniel Yes, and the ramifications extend even to produce and grocery prices. Weather changes have a huge impact on crops. For example, last year's harsh winter resulted in a diminished tomato harvest and an escalation in their prices: In Feburary 2011, NBC reported "With so many crops killed off by the cold, produce shop owners are seeing tomato prices triple. Cases that usually cost $12-15 are up to $40."  Other crops were similarly affected. There's not much the farmers or grocers can do in that situation, but those who can use canned tomatos in their products may decide to stock up before prices would rise if they anticipate the long term weather effects. 

Daniel
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Sunny forecast ...
Daniel   3/13/2012 2:14:24 AM
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Ariella, seasonal based marketing can make use of weather forecasting. Weather forecasting or seasonal predictions like average/above rain falls for a particular time frame, intensity of cold or snow fall etc can help the companies to either increase or decreases the production based on predictions. I think most of the umbrella and cold jerkin manufactures are making use of datas from weather forecasting department.

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