Jessica Davis

March Madness: Creating the Perfect Bracket

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SaneIT
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Re: Unpredictable
SaneIT   3/21/2017 8:51:28 AM
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I was going to make some similar statements after reading the blog post this morning.

 

"which comes from treating all 63 games as coin flips. At AllAnalytics, we all know they're not.)"

"A more promising prediction method, maybe, comes from computer science UCLA undergrad Adit Deshpande in this post about applying machine learning to March Madness. He has Villanova to win with a 64% probability."

 

I'm not saying it's right to think games are simple coin tosses but this year's tournament isn't doing anything to discredit that theory.  Villanova and Duke coming into the tournamanet as the number 1 and number 2 seed and making quick exits  broke a lot of brackets.  The outcome of those games and a few notable others sure feels like somone is going to win this year by coin toss.

PredictableChaos
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Re: Unpredictable
PredictableChaos   3/20/2017 7:20:04 PM
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The dartboard method works for stock-picking, so why not use the same for putting together a March Madness bracket?

The other data I would consult is the betting odds in Vegas.

There is a difference between the teams people 'know' will win an the teams people are willing to put money on. It's better (though still not certain) if people are willing to risk real money on your team.

louisw900
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Re: Unpredictable
louisw900   3/18/2017 7:14:53 PM
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@Tomsg   I agree.  It is pure chance, so why not just leave it to it ?   

louisw900
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Re: Unpredictable
louisw900   3/18/2017 7:12:18 PM
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"...computer science UCLA undergrad Adit Deshpande in this post about applying machine learning to March Madness. He has Villanova to win with a 64% probability."


So much for machine learning when it comes to picking teams correctly....Villanova was just sent home.

louisw900
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Re: Unpredictable
louisw900   3/18/2017 7:09:31 PM
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Good Luck Jessica !   I don't think your method was much different from what I employed. Since I have never heard of anyone getting a perfect bracket, I go in with that realization that I will (probably) not get it either.

So the pressure is off,   I am suddenly Northerwestern with little to lose.   Which allows me to play loose and let some past history experience guide me where it will.   Like for instance, in years past,  I have always though highly of Kansas and every year they let me down - so that was  an outlier that I factored in but for the most part I took the team with the higher seating, understanding there is always an upset during this round so my chances of a perfect bracket would evaporate quickly.

But this year I wanted to test my theory and as of this post I was 25 out of 32. Not bad for merely using the approach described which means that there were seven constestswhere my method did not hold true. So I will have to figure out how to correctly quess these seven next year and hope my theory continues to hold true.

And of course this is just the first round, there are still four more to go....

I know.  Good Luck with That !

SethBreedlove
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Re: Unpredictable
SethBreedlove   3/17/2017 1:47:04 PM
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I know so little that I have to search March Madness just to make sure I have the right sport.

I wonder how any type of drama or infighting within the team affects their performance.  My logic being a team that has infighting will not work as closely together and perform worse. 

 

 

tomsg
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Re: Unpredictable
tomsg   3/16/2017 9:10:23 PM
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When all else fails....

Jessica Davis
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Re: Unpredictable
Jessica Davis   3/16/2017 2:13:30 PM
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Dartboard! I didn't consider that method. Oh well. Too late to revise now.

tomsg
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Unpredictable
tomsg   3/16/2017 1:30:25 PM
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Given the number of upsets over the years and the good days and bad days, I have come to the conclusion that looking over past data can help you about 80% of the time and the rest is just unpredictable. Last year I used algorhythms and a dart board.  The dart board was best.

 

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