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A2 Radio: Can You Trust Your Data?
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Thank you for a great chat! 

Blogger

Thanks, everyone. See you all in the new year!

Blogger

Have a great day everyone !   See you on the boards !

Blogger

@Pierre   I knew we could do it !  : ) 

Blogger

@zimana Good job on the no partisan fighting! It may give me the confidence to venture onto facebook more again ;-)

 

Blogger

This was a great topic - and see, no partisan fighting. ;-)

Blogger

Thanks for keepign it lively @louisw900

 

Prospector

Thank you Trica, Jessica and James.....I really enjoyed these topics, never enough time....but I am sure A2 will be talking more about this in the days to come.

Blogger

May we digitize exit polls to capture that information  in a more private setting than just after walking out of a poll.  Sounds like an opportunity to fine tune how we capture voter sentiment.

Blogger

@triciaAA thanks for joining us today and taking time out from putting the finishing touches on that book!

 

Blogger

@James   Exit polling ?    Many people didn't want to admit who they voted for.  Ironically wanting rights they were voting against for others .....

Blogger

how do we verify whether the data is bad ?    Going to need a macro approach for starters but it will be a daunting task to consider all the outlets that potentially affect Data.

Blogger

Jessica: It goes back to a comment I made earlier: if one doesn't ask the right questions, on the right people/subjects, at the right time .. the results can be wrong, biased or non-generalizable. Today, in many areas, disruptive technology has to be considered. And, that not only affects voting polling, it can affect any statistical modelling exercise

Master Analyst

Congrats Tricia !   Looking forward to it !

Blogger

as @zimana mentioned, it's interesting to see the difference between this and previous elections in terms of polling. It was 8 years ago that the Republicans were convinced their polling was right. This time it was the Democrats. It's a caution to us all in terms of cognitive bias.

 

Blogger

Another old reliable (ok, maybe 20 years old) was the whole idea of key precincts, where news organizations and pollsters did exit interviews at polling places that were predictable based on their history. If the interviews matched the previous results you could forecast. That didn't work this time.

Blogger

@atabachneck   Great insight.  I don't think they are paying enough attention to it ( the Social Media effect ).

Blogger

I think Lyndon made a good point

"I am persuaded by the argumnent that pollsters tended to focus overwhelmingly on surveying urban rather than suburban and rural voters"

Trumps team said that was the only thing they focused on.  Thus their polling was correct.

 

Prospector

@atabachneck Right, and how do you add social media into the model?

 

Blogger

TriciaAA looking forward to the release.

Blogger

And how does that perspective image not just businesses, but other institutions. I like that Google, Twitter, FB have agreed to not do a muslim registry database if requested. How does FB and Twitter operate against government interest if they are treated as a media company but the valuable media - data - is not easily regulated.

Blogger

@atabachneck. Good point about social media. The experts who swear that it's a good predictor are dedicated users themselves. Those who say it isn't accurate often aren't users themselves. So, there is bias on both sides

Blogger

It's called Introduction to SAS Visual Analytics and it's due outin March 2017.  I'm doing the final touches this week as a matter of fact

Prospector

Thanks Jessica,  Always like a good Nate article !

Blogger

Tricia. Jessica said you have a new book coming out. When is it available?How? and what's it about?

Blogger

@zimana, i think that's a great question for all of us going forward -- how do we verify whether the data is bad

 

Blogger

One has to wonder if those doing the polls/predictions are paying the right amount of attention and/or inattention to the resultant effects of social media

 

Master Analyst

The chatbots are interesting - I saw that both campaigns were using them.  I was curious about them and wonder how many follow me. Wonder if that was who I unfollowed!?  :-)

Prospector

Very True Pierre, Zuckerberg doesn't want to be labeled a Media company, but I think he no longer has a choice. Users dictate how the goodies of FB will be used.   So whether he likes it or not ....he will have to committ resources to make sure that the News within his site is really news.  Good luck with that......

Blogger

I agree with the social media shifting into media companies - they may not be ready for it

Prospector

but don't go there yet. stick around for the chat first :)

 

Blogger

Hey, here's a link to the story about the Nate Silver presentation I went to last year: http://www.informationweek.com/big-data/big-data-analytics/nate-silver-predicts-2016-presidential-race-at-salesforce-world-tour/d/d-id/1323205

 

Blogger

Folks. Thanks for joining today. Questions welcome!

 

Blogger

Nice mention of chatbots Pierre which is an off shoot of hacking.   How do we deal with that too ?

Blogger

Louis - I think social media will struggle with the idea of not being media companies - that's a big shift in business model and introduces new ethical concerns - Social media was not designed to be a news community.

Blogger

One point about the web - there's been varying reports of chatbots on Trump in Twitter - doesn;'t that damage the value of any uptick in response.

Blogger

Good point Pierre, Twitter, FB and all the rest have diluted Truth and Facts.  Never thought I would live to see the day when facts mean nothing.    The death of critical thinking ?   Well I will always practice it ....so it is not quite dead yet.

Blogger

I agree atabachneck with your data problem comment.

Blogger

I wish I had a chance to see that presentation Tricia mentioned - may be able to find it on YouTube. I am finding a lot of presentations are being recorded.

Blogger

Lyndon: I view that as very much a data problem. Are the right questions being asked of the right people and using the least biased method possible. Obviously, they should have been more concerned with the electorial votes than the popular votes. If they didn't account for that, they were in effect simply asking the wrong population to be able to generalize the results.

Master Analyst

@Lyndon_Henry  Excellent point.   Take the state of Virgina for instance, went strong for you know who.  Can't seem to face the fact that Coal is no longer a viable resource.  Ignoring change doesn't stop it.

Blogger

Twitter was extremely dangerous.

Blogger

I agreed with Jim - I also unfollowed people when they were becoming ongoing with political commentary rather than encouraging insightful discussion.  The reaction is indeed scary - we have more access to commentary to a public event that we've ever had.

Blogger

Actually I've seen reports that the polling results, as it turned out, were basically correct. Clinton DID win the actual public vote by a fair margin (I've seen the figure of over 4 million votes). The problem was electoral votes, which apparently have been somewhat skewed by vote counting problems in several key swing states.

That said ... I am persuaded by the argumnent that pollsters tended to focus overwhelmingly on surveying urban rather than suburban and rural voters.

Blogger

I think the lenght of the election had something to do with it too.....

Blogger

Interesting.  Thinking like that ...voting with the party is how we got this result.  In the end, discard reason and just vote what you think your party used to be....  I am still wondering how one can vote for someone who has used them as a tool, a tool they insulted along the way.....mind boggeling.

Blogger

I like the mention of getting to the right audience - how do people feel now about improving the ability to reach quality responses for next campaign - how do we verify that data quality is bad?

Blogger

@Pierre Cool.  : ) 

Blogger

The real issue is that people cannot discern between real and fake news .....   Because most think FB is the be all ...end all.

Blogger

Louis, that's right ;-)

Blogger

I'm hoping we have some comments on how analytics evolved from last election.

Blogger

Good disclaimer - I think the partisan discussion are hard to avoid (and getting harder)

 

Blogger

Always good to have Jessica and Jim on this platform!

Blogger

"Polling is less accurate, no one single place where people go to get facts."  Very important note, liked that she highlighted that quote.

Blogger

Hello Everyone !   

 

Blogger

Hello everyone

Master Analyst
Great topic! Looking forward to it!
Prospector


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