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Gridiron Computing: Analytics vs. Humans
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Re: Cold call
  • 1/28/2014 11:56:01 PM
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But you can't restrict the game to only warm states, can you? What's the rationale otherwise? We've had milder Februaries. I don't know enough about the decision-making to know whom to fault, here.

Re: Cold call
  • 1/28/2014 10:42:27 PM
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@Michael, I don't think the NFL or any other speculator needed analytics to see that it was a bad idea to have a SB in February in NJ. Common sense would do.

 

Re: Cold call
  • 1/28/2014 9:32:08 PM
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The local news radio interviewed an exec from this site (or one like it -- it's amazing how many sites with 'sb' in their URL have cropped up) who said he's losing thousands every day. 

A year ago, a hotel room for the Super Bowl went for $2,000. Today, you can get a room for $300 or less. It's a speculation game, and some of the speculators are losing.

The question is, could analytics have predicted this polar vortex in advance and then model how it would affect Super Bowl attendance?

Re: Cold call
  • 1/28/2014 9:28:29 PM
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I'll grant you that, Broadway -- the experts did say that teams with strong followings aren't going to have the same kind of attendance problems that others have.

That said, I just heard on the radio today that hotel rooms in the NY area are still available for the Super Bowl weekend, and at reasonable rates, too. People are put off by the arctic chill and even if they weren't, there's too much supply in New York / New Jersey to support inflated prices. 

 

Re: Cold call
  • 1/8/2014 8:40:50 AM
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@RaleighRedSoxFan, thanks for jumping in here. I wasn't thinking so much about home field advantage or one team battling another on the same field of play. Rather, I was thinking about one set of games being played in the Arctic tundra or sweltering heat and another set being played in a climate-controlled, domed stadium. Football is grueling in any one of those places, but I would have to think the physical toll is much worse for players either in the bitter cold or the extreme heat -- so aren't those winning teams potentially less physically prepared to take on their next challengers if those challengers have not played under certain circumstances within the same game-time period? Believe me, I don't mean to open a debate about indoor vs outdoor play, but just bringing up something on my mind. I haven't investigated, but I do wonder if anybody has looked at historical performance of SuperBowl victors due to playoff playing conditions!

Re: Cold call
  • 1/7/2014 10:54:45 PM
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@Michael, small markets do not necessarily have attendance problems. See the Green Bay Packers, which have something like a 100-year wait list for their season tickets.

Re: Random Thoughts
  • 1/7/2014 5:49:52 PM
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As a sports fan & data guy, it would be nice if teams could find the sweet spot - reasonable ticket prices that fill the stadium, w/out leaving money on the table. While football is at a disadvantage w/ limited # of games, baseball has enough. Sexy algorithms aside, if a team performs the same in 2011 & 2012 and isn't coming close to selling out games, the price is too high. (Tampa Bay Rays - Are you listening?)

At some level it comes down to simple supply vs. demand logic.

Re: Cold call
  • 1/7/2014 5:39:03 PM
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@Beth RE: "Is it fair that some teams have to battle the elements while others play their way into the big game under much friendlier domed conditions?"

When teams face each other, they are both on the same field w/ the same conditons. So whether the Bears & Packers face each other on the arctic tundra in Dec or Dolphins & Jaguars go head-to-head in the sweltering southen heat - they faced each other on equal grounds.

Some will say a team from the deep south is at a disadvantage playing on a cold field. Home field advantage aside, I don't buy that. None of the players are from the towns they play in.

Interesting thread!

Re: Cold call
  • 1/6/2014 12:37:12 PM
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I think that's what GoViva's Tuchman meant by "large market," Beth. A big city, a storied team, a huge fan base. In smaller markets, you may find the same level of rabid fandom, but just not enough bodies to fill the seats.

Re: Cold call
  • 1/6/2014 9:57:39 AM
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Ya, Indy is a no-brainer -- and Boston, yikes! That ought to be an interesting matchup, from a fan perspective. I know some BC fans who are even more avid than ND fans.

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